歐盟發布歐洲東南部國家非洲豬瘟的風險評估

　　2019年11月4日，據歐盟食品安全局（EFSA）消息，應歐盟委員會要求，歐盟食品安全局評估了歐洲東南部國家非洲豬瘟的傳播風險，并確定了傳播的潛在風險因素（指標）。

　　據了解，三個歐盟成員國--克羅地亞、希臘和斯洛文尼亞--因其地理位置和無東盟自由貿易區地位而被納入關注區域。根據收集到的關于每個國家潛在風險因素（指標）的信息和歐盟現行的相關法規，估計在引入關注區域后一年內，非洲豬瘟在關注區域內擴散的概率非常高（從66%到100%）。

　　部分原文報道如下：

　　The European Commission requested EFSA to estimate the risk of spread of African swine fever （ASF） and to identify potential risk factors （indicators） for the spread of ASF, given introduction in the south‐eastern countries of Europe （region of concern, ROC）， namely Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Greece, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Slovenia. Three EU Member States （MS）  -Croatia, Greece and Slovenia  -were included in the ROC due to their geographical location and ASF‐free status. based on collected information on potential risk factors （indicators） for each country and the relevant EU regulations in force, the estimated probability of spread of ASF within the ROC within one year after introduction into the ROC was assessed to be very high （from 66% to 100%）。 This estimate was determined after considering the high number of indicators present in most of the countries in the ROC and the known effect that these indicators can have on ASF spread, especially those related to the structure of the domestic pig sector, the presence of wild boar and social factors. The presence of indicators varies between countries in the ROC. Each country is at risk of ASF spread following introduction； however, some countries may have a higher probability of ASF spread following introduction. In addition, the probability of ASF spread from the ROC to EU MSs outside the ROC within one year after introduction of ASF in the ROC was estimated to be very low to low （from 0% to 15%）。